Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 21.493334 25.242257 29.837068 36.018811 44.344079 55.533872 72.424131
2024-12-22 16.631240 20.732631 26.272480 34.672222 47.859903 69.452231 112.341273
2024-12-29 14.269092 18.482497 24.551875 34.564930 52.245578 86.516609 176.389660
2025-01-05 12.280511 16.282000 22.281208 32.735501 52.750204 96.791756 244.259661
2025-01-12 10.680475 14.376867 20.066498 30.355994 51.212334 101.709982 310.556437
2025-01-19 9.517889 12.972568 18.407639 28.550764 50.163355 107.323275 402.509714
2025-01-26 9.673066 13.602338 20.137793 33.388705 65.839958 178.658737 1712.687649
2025-02-02 9.360633 13.430469 20.451548 35.518806 76.396182 255.899707 14929.443415
2025-02-09 8.580152 12.394073 19.055678 33.636086 74.684970 272.526721 125263.013829
2025-02-16 8.277759 12.136317 19.063754 34.917585 83.603835 382.167659 NaN
2025-02-23 7.849689 11.618000 18.503887 34.730889 87.621563 478.827839 NaN
2025-03-02 7.443094 11.102111 17.886647 34.273415 90.522345 589.419075 NaN
2025-03-09 7.134809 10.760702 17.626280 34.816750 98.652467 877.917744 NaN
2025-03-16 6.693620 10.145370 16.743168 33.537331 98.265202 1039.381546 NaN
2025-03-23 6.397363 9.772314 16.320569 33.435265 103.584656 1529.465694 NaN
2025-03-30 5.998233 9.180948 15.380018 31.693713 99.662170 1628.265259 NaN
2025-04-06 5.589034 8.548979 14.306826 29.424975 92.071297 1453.540941 NaN
2025-04-13 5.252136 8.036298 13.455627 27.701026 86.890230 1395.181207 NaN
2025-04-20 5.414190 8.468698 14.674308 32.315807 121.690856 17295.324498 NaN
2025-04-27 5.366120 8.494219 15.000637 34.342411 145.315465 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.088876 8.054661 14.222406 32.551329 137.612601 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.006750 7.995071 14.320064 33.770716 157.216770 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 4.851511 7.780565 14.033725 33.593138 164.481366 NaN NaN